The wireless industry operates on a predictable, yet destructive, cycle: major spectrum auctions trigger enormous spending and job creation, only to be followed by significant layoffs. The 2021 C-Band auction perfectly illustrates this phenomenon. Carriers collectively spent a record $81.2 billion on mid-band spectrum¹, driving industry-wide capital expenditures to $48-57 billion annually—levels not seen in a decade². Yet, even as billions were poured into network construction, workforce reductions were already being planned.
This isn't an isolated incident. Between 2017 and 2024, this pattern played out twice with devastating clarity. Over $120 billion in spectrum purchases⁷ unleashed more than $230 billion in network investments⁸, consistently followed by industry-wide workforce reductions of 20-30% at major carriers⁴. This isn't the story of one company; it's an ingrained industry pattern that repeats with every significant spectrum release.
The Four Phases of Telecom's Boom-Bust Cycle
This recurring pattern follows a predictable sequence that any carrier executive could sketch from memory:
The Auction: Carriers bid billions for the airwaves critical for network expansion.
The Planning Phase (12-18 months): Companies secure financing, design network architecture, and begin aggressive staffing for the massive deployment ahead.
The Boom (24-36 months): The industry shifts into overdrive. Capital expenditures soar, contractors can demand premium rates, and companies hire aggressively to meet deployment deadlines. Tower crews work around the clock, project managers juggle dozens of simultaneous site builds, and the entire ecosystem races to transform spectrum licenses into functioning networks.
The Cliff: As deployments near completion, the very executives who approved hiring surges begin planning workforce reductions. The logic is simple: networks built for decades of service don't require the vast armies needed for construction. Within months of celebrating network launches, carriers announce layoffs affecting thousands of employees who built those very networks.
Following the Money Through Two Major Cycles
The 2017 600 MHz auction provided the first act of this drama. Carriers spent $19.77 billion³ on nationwide low-band spectrum crucial for rural coverage. Predictably, 2018 and 2019 saw a hiring boom as companies raced to deploy. By 2020, as deployments wound down, workforce reductions began.
But the 600 MHz cycle was merely a prelude. The 2021 C-Band auction shattered all records, generating over $81 billion¹ as carriers desperately bid for the mid-band spectrum essential for 5G performance. The spending surge was immediate and dramatic. Industry-wide capital expenditures reached unprecedented levels, with Verizon investing $23.1 billion, AT&T $19.6 billion, and T-Mobile $14.0 billion in 2022 alone².
The multiplier effect remained consistent: every billion dollars in spectrum purchases triggered two to three billion in infrastructure spending. Even major government contracts for public safety networks, adding billions more, ultimately led to the same pattern—significant workforce reductions despite successful project completion.
The Human Cost of Financial Engineering
The workforce impacts would be less severe if carriers paid cash for spectrum. However, modern auctions demand financial engineering that amplifies the pressure for post-deployment cuts. Carriers collectively borrowed approximately $50.2 billion for C-Band purchases alone⁵. These aren't just figures; they're obligations demanding immediate returns once networks go live.
SEC filings document the scale: Verizon secured a $25 billion term loan for its $45.5 billion C-Band purchase, AT&T borrowed $14.7 billion for its $23.4 billion acquisition, and T-Mobile raised approximately $10.5 billion in debt financing for its $9.3 billion purchase⁵.
When capital expenditures normalize but debt service remains, workforce reduction becomes the primary lever for improving financial metrics. The pressure is relentless: cut costs, improve margins, service the debt. Major mergers compound these pressures, as combined companies seek efficiencies that inevitably target redundant positions.
The metrics are telling. Leading carriers have pushed revenue per employee up by 35-90% over the past five years⁶, even while reducing total headcount by tens of thousands. AT&T reduced its workforce from 247,800 to 140,990 employees between 2019 and 2024, improving revenue per employee by approximately 75-80%⁶. Wall Street rewards such efficiency improvements, creating incentives to build networks with large temporary workforces and then operate them with minimal staff.
The Next Wave Is Already Building
For those who recognize the pattern, early indicators of the next cycle are already visible. Carriers hold billions in undeployed spectrum from recent auctions, with deployments expected to accelerate in 2025. New government funding for network expansion has been announced⁹, with the BEAD program allocating $42.45 billion for broadband infrastructure, and infrastructure companies report record backlogs after two years of post-C-Band normalization.
The cycle will repeat because it must. Spectrum auctions are the mechanism by which the federal government allocates finite airwaves. Networks require periodic, massive investments to incorporate new spectrum and technology. And the economics of building versus operating networks remain fundamentally different. As long as these facts hold true, the boom-bust pattern will continue.
What makes this predictable volatility particularly frustrating is that everyone sees it coming. Executives know that hiring thousands for a three-year project means eventually eliminating most of those positions. Workers know that today's urgent deployment becomes tomorrow's completed project. Yet, the industry continues operating as if each cycle is a surprise.
Breaking the Cycle Through Flexible Project Leadership
The solution isn't to stop building networks or to maintain bloated workforces between deployment cycles. The solution is to acknowledge reality and structure accordingly. If major deployments occur every four to five years and last 24 to 36 months, why maintain permanent teams sized for peak activity?
Flexible project leadership offers a different model—one that matches resources to needs without the fiction that deployment-phase staffing makes sense during steady-state operations. Instead of hiring executives and managers for multi-year deployments, then eliminating their positions upon project completion, companies can engage experienced leaders for the duration of actual need.
The benefits extend beyond simple cost savings. Flexible leaders bring invaluable experience from multiple deployment cycles across diverse organizations. They arrive with proven playbooks, not needing to learn on the job. They can seamlessly scale their involvement up or down as project phases demand. Most importantly, they provide continuity of expertise without the organizational trauma of repeated restructuring.
As spectrum authorities prepare for future auctions and carriers evaluate their infrastructure needs, the question isn't whether another boom-bust cycle will occur. History unequivocally shows it will. The critical question is whether the industry will continue its expensive pattern of hiring for peaks and firing in valleys, or finally embrace models that acknowledge the cyclical reality of network investment.
The carriers that answer this question wisely will find themselves better positioned for both phases of the cycle—able to scale rapidly when deployment demands surge, and operate efficiently when the building stops. In an industry where the only constant is change, flexibility isn't just an advantage; it's a necessity for sustainable growth and a healthier workforce.
Sources:
- FCC Announces Winning Bidders in C-band Auction (February 24, 2021). Federal Communications Commission. [C-Band auction generated $81.2 billion in gross proceeds, with winning bidders including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile]
- Carrier SEC 10-K Filings (2021-2022). Verizon Communications Inc.: $23.1B capex in 2022, $20.3B in 2021; AT&T Inc.: $19.6B in 2022, $15.5B in 2021; T-Mobile US Inc.: $14.0B in 2022. Total major carrier capex: $56.7B (2022), $48-49B (2021).
- Incentive Auction Closing and Channel Reassignment Public Notice (DA 17-314, April 13, 2017). Federal Communications Commission. [600 MHz auction generated $19,768,437,378 in gross proceeds from 50 winning bidders]
- "All in the charts: Analyzing telecom's big workforce shrinkage" Fierce Network (2023-2024). [Analysis documenting 20-30% workforce reductions across major telecom carriers]
- SEC Form 8-K Filings (February-March 2021). Verizon: $25B term loan agreement (Feb 24, 2021); AT&T: $14.7B credit facility; T-Mobile: Multiple debt issuances totaling ~$10.5B (Q4 2020-Q1 2021).
- Company 10-K Filings and Workforce Data (2019-2024). AT&T: Employee reduction from 247,800 to 140,990 (43% decrease), revenue per employee increase ~75-80%; Verizon: Employee reduction from ~132,000 to 99,600 (25% decrease), revenue per employee increase ~35-40%.
- FCC Spectrum Auction Results (2017-2024). Major auctions include: C-Band ($81B+), 600 MHz ($19.77B), AWS-3 ($44.9B), 3.45 GHz ($22.5B). Total exceeds $120B when including smaller auctions.
- Industry Analysis of Spectrum Multiplier Effect. Historical data shows $1B in spectrum spending typically generates $2-3B in infrastructure investment, supporting the $230B+ figure for network investments following major auctions.
- Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) Program. National Telecommunications and Information Administration. Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act allocated $42.45 billion for broadband infrastructure deployment across all 50 states and territories.
